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Why Be Creative? - Part 2

One thing none of those twenty-four scientists predicted, probably because they felt it would be too fantastic, was the re­peal of the law of gravity. But in that same fifteen-month period, it was announced that new advances in the development of a unified field theory of physics now have scientists suspecting that the earth's gravity is an electromagnetic force. If this proves to be so, then the force can be shielded, neutralized, or utilized to produce a counterforce. In other words, gravity could well be "on the way out"—and in less than twenty years.

Where these educated and experienced technical specialists had been led astray in their predictions was in underestimating one of the most dynamic and powerful forces at work in the world today: the speeding up of our "rate of change." Today, we are acquiring new knowledge and technological skills at such a rapidly increasing rate that developments and discoveries which used to take twenty years can now be accomplished in ten; events which formerly took ten years to bring about now become realities in two or three years. At the time those twenty-four scientists made their predictions, the fastest man-made machine was an airplane which traveled at about 750 miles an hour. Within two months, man-made satellites were in orbit at 18,000 mph, and within the fifteen-month period, a Russian rocket had escaped the earth's gravitational field at 25,000 mph!

It has been estimated that we are currently advancing our tech­nological knowledge at a rate of 22 per cent a year. This means that we more than double our knowledge every four years. Whether this estimate is accurate or not, it is safe to say that never before in history has man's knowledge of his nature and environ­ment increased so fast or in so many different directions. In fact, so rapidly are we moving today that even man's oldest and most useful invention, the wheel, can't keep up any more. The wheel isn't going to disappear completely overnight, of course, and pos­sibly not even in our lifetime. But it is significant that there are now at least two models of wheel less automobiles, both of which depend on jets of air to propel them along above the road. And in new electronic computers, the old wheel number counters are be­ing replaced by electronic switches and tubes which are faster and more dependable.

So what does this mean to you as a business executive? Aren't these all signs of progress? And isn't progress inevitable?

These are all signs of progress, of course. They are also signs of change and changes to come. But all changes are not progres­sive. And progress isn't inevitable—only change is inevitable. We just hope that, through the resourcefulness and decency of man, the changes will also be progressive. Today, in the midst of our looking into and anticipating the future, we can, simply by look­ing at the "old" problems we have never adequately solved, see definite proof that change doesn't have to be for the good. In fact, many of these "old" problems are, if anything, going from bad to so much worse that they could, in time, destroy our nation.

For example: By 1970, according to Dr. Arthur R. Upgren, Director of the Bureau of Economic Studies, Macalester College, our gross national product in the United States will be at the phenomenally high figure of $700-billion a year. However, Dr. Upgren reports the liquidity of our banks—the sum of cash and reserves and United States government securities as a proportion of percentage of deposits—has been declining since 1945 from a high of 83 per cent. Says Dr. Upgren, "If we now make loans in the next ten years to expand deposits by the growth we need, I estimate that the liquidity ratio will be down to the danger point again of 23 per cent... where we were in 1929." And, he points out, "If this problem isn't solved, we will have a money shortage too severe for our economy to withstand in 1970."

Our natural resources—metals, chemicals, fuels—are being ex­hausted at fantastic rates to support the growth of our expanding economy and standard of living. We are, in many fields, already turning to substitute and synthetic materials to supply our basic needs. But the big danger is that our children's children will have to get along without even these if we continue to consume and waste them at the present rate. Much of this exhaustion of re­sources is preventable, that we do know. As an example, consider the wasteful use of coal—for years one of our basic natural re­sources. If we could solve the problems of efficient conversion of coal into energy, just one kilogram—about two pounds—of coal could yield us 25-billion kilowatt hours of electricity—as much as all the power plants in the United States in 1958 could generate by running steadily for two months!

Our growing labor force is caught in a squeeze between its increase in size and the decrease in need. Industrial productivity is such today that fewer workers are needed, and fewer still will be needed in the future, to maintain our manufacturing output. In view of this situation, one economist reported that unemploy­ment may easily become our greatest national problem in future years. As examples, he reported that between April and October of 1958, our production went up 10 per cent, but production-worker payrolls increased only 5 per cent. When General Motors went into full production on their 1959 lines, their production increase was 25 per cent. But they hired only 5 per cent more workers.

Related terms include datastage and business service.